Dear New Readers . . . you get what you get here on Pretty All True.
Yesterday? Drunkenness and banana-scented sex and Psychophant Danielle.
Last week? Daughter hilarity.
Today? Thoughtfulness.
So new readers . . . do not bail because I am fully clothed and pensive today.
It happens sometimes.
So . . .
September 9th, 1990.
I am reading the Sunday paper.
Actually, I am done reading the paper. I have moved on to the Parade Magazine.
You know . . . that glossy not-really-a-magazine-at-all insert that comes with the Sunday paper.
(Actually, I haven’t purchased a Sunday paper in quite a while. Does Parade Magazine still exist? I should check on that.)
Anyway. September 9, 1990. Parade Magazine. There is a column in this magazine entitled Ask Marilyn, in which people write and ask questions of Marilyn vos Savant, a woman who claims to have the highest IQ ever recorded.
Marilyn annoys me with her smarty-pantsness and her superiority.
She is married to one of the inventors of the Jarvik artificial heart.
I am recently married, and my new husband has invented nothing.
NOTHING.
Sigh.
Marilyn is in the Guinness Book of World Records as the woman with the highest measured IQ.
That is just so annoying of her! Who does that?
Also, I am suspicious of her last name, which seems pretty fucking made up.
Despite my hostility, I read her column every Sunday.
Many times, I already know the answers to the questions posed.
But it’s so much more fun when I do not. Marilyn explains things in a way that allows me to see them differently . . . I feel a little thrill every time she explains something to me I did not understand before. As though she has picked up the seemingly unsolvable puzzle and turned it so that I can see the secret compartment in the back that conceals the missing piece.
Marilyn herself annoys me, but her column is fabulous.
I drive Mark insane, by the way, insisting that he discuss these various math and logic problems with me.
But we are newly married.
He is trapped.
Which brings us back to September 9th, 1990.
A reader writes in and asks the following question:
Suppose you’re on a game show, and you’re given the choice of three doors. Behind one door is a car, behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say #1, and the host, who knows what’s behind the doors, opens another door, say #3, which has a goat. He says to you, “Do you want to pick door #2?”
Is it to your advantage to switch your choice of doors?
—Craig F. Whitaker from Columbia, Maryland
Seriously? How dumb can this man be?
I read the answer.
Wait . . . what?
Marilyn says it is to your advantage to switch doors; that the car is much more likely to be behind door #2 than the door you have already chosen.
I stare at the page in confusion; that cannot be right.
The host opened a door, and so now there are two doors left. The chances of the car being behind one of these two remaining doors is fifty-fifty. Why would Marilyn say to switch doors? THAT MAKES NO SENSE!
I read her explanation.
IT MAKES NO SENSE.
I read her explanation again and again.
I explain the whole scenario to Mark, but he doesn’t understand what she is saying either.
It drives me nuts; I am so sure that she is wrong but it seems so unlikely that she is wrong.
I obsess.
Over the following weeks, I watch as the American public (and an enormous number of mathematical experts) attack Marilyn for her ignorance.
I watch as Marilyn insists that she is right.
She explains again.
I still don’t understand her explanation, and I am growing seriously annoyed. I begin to feel as though she is correct, but I can’t figure out WHY she is correct. Sadly, the more she explains, the more confused I get.
I stop reading the Ask Marilyn column not long after that . . . column after column is devoted to explaining this one logic problem.
I just don’t get it.
Three doors. One with a car and two with goats. I pick a door. The host opens a door I have not picked that he knows does not contain the car, leaving two doors.
There are now only two doors! There is a 50/50 chance the car is behind the door I have already chosen.
RIGHT?
Why would I switch?
I just know that I am missing something, but when I study the explanations Marilyn offers, they seem to rely on probability somehow leaving the door that got opened by the host and floating through the air to assign itself to the remaining door that I have not chosen.
What the fuck?
Let it go, Kris.
Over the years, whenever someone has mentioned this logic problem in writing or in conversation, I just figuratively stick my fingers in my ears and say LALALALALALA until that person is done.
Don’t want to think about it.
Until the other day.
I am reading a book called The Drunkard’s Walk; How Randomness Rules Our Lives.
In this book is a discussion of “The Monty Hall Problem” (the name of the logic problem set forth in the Ask Marilyn column).
I am about to stick my fingers in my ears and say LALALALALA and flip past this section of the book when a sentence catches my eye . . .
“The host’s role can be made obvious if we suppose that instead of 3 doors, there were 100.”
Click.
What if there were 100 doors in this game, 99 with goats and 1 with a car?
I choose door #1.
And then I watch as the host (who knows which door conceals the car) opens 98 other doors, revealing 98 goats.
Leaving me with two unopened doors.
Door #1, which has a 1% chance of opening to reveal the car.
And door #100, which now has a 99% chance of opening to reveal the car.
The host’s knowledge matters.
Click.
I do not believe in God.
I know that life is not a game show with doors concealing goats and cars.
I know that I am oversimplifying.
But imagine . . .
There are paths among which you must choose. Assume there is a single path that is right for you. Assume you are presented with 100 possibilities.
You choose a path, hoping that it takes you where you want to go . . . hoping that it is the right path.
As you walk this path, imagine that an all-knowing God cuts off your access to 98 of the paths you did not take, revealing as He does so that those paths were not right for you.
None of those paths was the right path.
Leaving you with the path you have chosen (whose destination you cannot see), and a single other path whose destination is similarly obscured from view.
God’s knowledge matters.
Perhaps you should switch paths.
Right?
Hmm, heavy, man.
Yes, I think perhaps thats right.
I think if the opportunity arises to change the path, explore a new direction, it should be taken.
If you’ve chosen to switch it is now The Right path. In the end, the goal is the same.
Renee -
But there are ALWAYS opportunities to change your path.
Change for the sake of change alone is not necessarily a good thing.
However, in the hypothetical I laid out?
There is only one correct path and the chances are 99% that you are not currently on it.
Weird, right?
Me
I always used to yell at the TV to keep what you picked…guess I was barking up the wrong path.
On the other hand, I would so rock at that game show, I always have interesting stuff in my purse. Right now I have a safety pin, hairbrush, dental floss, screwdriver, allen key, vice grips and cheese…
don’t ask, I may have been a boyscout in another life.
Shawna -
Just so you know?
This logic only applies if the host knowingly eliminates other alternatives for you.
If he is as unknowing as you are?
Different logic applies.
Kris
Oh and the Parade, with Marilyn, still exists. At half size.
It was already small!
They made it tiny?
Really?
Yes. Tiny. 8.5 x 11. Almost notebook paper size.
Oh, I have to see that.
Making a note.
That’s just silly!
Now it’s me that’s confused. Probability was never my strong point, though.
And yes, I’m sure you are all kinds of genius!
Madeleine -
Before I hit “publish,” I told Mark, “I am thinking this post may confuse and annoy some of my readers.”
Mark made me promise he didn’t have to read today’s post.
SNORT!
Pensive Kris,
My concern is that Monty Hall would be behind Door Number 1 WITH the goat.
I still don’t get the statistical argument. LaLaLaLaLaLaLa.
Big Question: Is your basement like your brain? Jam-packed with random items of interest? Plus also spiders?
Ahem. Moving on to the matters of the day.
Bill
P.S. – Hoping Mark has invented Boat Stop Leak.
Dear man who imagines Monty Hall fucking a goat behind door #1,
Do not speak to me of brains jam-packed with random items of interest.
Snort!
Me
Kris,
You are right to question the bona fides of Marilyn vos Savant.
The letters of her name can be re-arranged to spell A Man Savors Vinyl or Saliva Navy Mr Son, or, the clincher, Anal Savvy Is Norm.
I will not, in the interest of human decency, go into what the letters of Monty Hall ***** A Goat can be re-arranged to spell.
Bill
Ooooh . . guess what?
“Monty Hall fucks a goat” becomes “A fallacy hog knot smut.”
I know!
That is awesome.
Also?
Anal savvy is norm?
Get back to work, Sir.
I love when you get pensive.
Also? My brain is now all twisty.
Thank you for the red noise flowing through my brain!
You realize “red noise” is random noise, right?
Also known as the “Drunkard’s Walk” for its unpredictable chaotic nature.
That’s how my brain functions most days, by the way.
Welcome to my world!
YAY!
I am a little lost and confused and I’m not sure why.
You have given me a few things to ponder for the day (or longer).
Sigh.
Stasha -
THAT’S A GOOD THING!
Go me!
No sighing!
Yay!
That makes some kind of sense, but my brain wants to do otherthings with that information.
Glad you explained it finally though, or it might have bugged me until my mind went blank. Also, Would the host even tell the player that he or she had such knowledge?
Oooo, host is a creepy word for me. My mother watched far more si-fi than was healthy for my young mind. hee
Tabitha -
It is not required the player know that the host has knowledge, although having that knowledge would influence his choice about switching.
If the host knows which of the three doors conceals the car? Then there is NO chance he will open the door that conceals the car. His choice of doors is DETERMINED by his knowledge when the contestant has chosen a door that conceals a goat.
If he does not know which door conceals the car, then about 1/3 of the time the game would end when he opened the door with the car behind it.
The game makes no sense if the host lacks knowledge.
And yes . . . the word “host” is creepy once you bring in the parasitic possibilities.
Ick!
True … sniarb ym elbmarcs
This is why I’ll just stick to my clay and story writing. hee hee
eM
hpmmmmh
.riaf gnikcuf ton oS.
?yalc evah uoY !tiaW
.niarb ruoy delbmarcs I yrroS.
,ahtibaT
Should I be worried that I can read that as completely normal writing?
Maybe a teeny bit of concern is warranted.
Maybe.
Hee hee!
!deerga tee hee
!tronS
!eeh eeh !taht naht yalc erom neve evah I ,elahw a taolf ot nemar hguone dah I ,remmus eno egelloc nI
.revocer lliw niarb ym ,yrrow t’noD !!reve !! esnopser !! tseB
.taht evoL
.nemar ni gnitaolf elahw a fo egami eht ta decnartne lla ma I
. . . tub ,sgniht rehto dias uoY
Kris
I always thought that the show’s producers would talk into the microphone in the host’s ear and tell him things like:
“Now reveal door number 3″
Without telling him where the prize car actually was because they did not want him to give (even tiny) amount of a clue in his actions.
There is no way to know if the host actually knows which door holds what.
With that variable the logic becomes false right?
that is all?
Amy -
Nope.
It still works . . . all you have done is place an all-knowing person behind the host to guide his movements. The host’s movements and choices are still carried out with the full knowledge of the actual actor (who in this case is the producer and not the host).
And so nothing changes.
Nothing at all.
And you should still switch doors when given that opportunity.
Me
And this? Is why when I choose a path I always end up wondering where the hell I am and why I’m surrounded by goats.
I also do not take previously untaken shortcuts. For me, they always seem to lead to wheat fields and trailer parks filled with chickens.
Steph -
Sometimes, the correct path has goats . . . just so you know.
Snort!
As for the untaken shortcuts?
Is it a shortcut if it has never been taken before?
Or is that just wandering off into the woods?
Hee hee!
Bahahaha!
I’ll take Goat Paths and Chicken Roads for $500, Alex.
Hee hee!
Remember to state your answer in the form of a question.
I am confused. And annoyed.
But lovingly so. It’s comforting to know that others think the same way I do sometimes.
But wait!
I am not confused and annoyed anymore!
I see clearly now!
YES, I DO!
Hush.
I don’t care how high her IQ is, I totally agree with you. The hosts goal is to NOT give away the car very often, so he would be pushing towards the goat if he influenced.
You are so smart that I hereby dub thee “Overlord” – a blogger changing the world one post at a time. Please come by and pick up your award – if you want. I know you probably don’t do these silly things, but you are so THE Overlord, I couldn’t leave you off the list. I linked my name to the post.
Rhonda -
But you do see that the game, as it’s described in the “Monty Hall” problem, cannot be influenced by the host so as to get you a goat . . . right?
We might perceive his role to be that of thwarter . . . but he cannot play that role in the game as it is described.
As for the other?
I do like the title of “Overlord!”
I will be by in a bit to check that out!
Yay!
Really, should you lead with the clothes on bit?!?! Especially if you wanted to attract new readers or titillate some old ones?!?!
Don’t laugh, but I was watching a tv show that explained this theory sunday… and I thought about it a lot for a while afterwards. I believe life is a pathway where every decision you make is a different path to take. I really do. My path is most definitely, probably wrong I expect BUT my kids are on it with me and I’m ok with that.
As for god… well…
M
ps- that article on Ask Marilyn would have driven me totally bonkers!!!
Heh heh . . . You said titillate.
Snort!
What?
Also?
What show were you watching?
BWAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!
I figured you’d laugh with the titillate comment.
The show – Fringe or Eureka.. one of them as I watched several of each on sunday.
What?
Yes, I am a Sci-fi geek… I still watch X-Files as well.
I know… weird geeky person with a very strange sense of humour. Who knew?!?!
Mishelle -
I am sooo not a science fiction fan, but weirdly?
A lot of the things I find fascinating are grist for the science fiction mill.
Hmmmm.
No sense.
And I can’t handle the stress of even WATCHING shows that make the contestant choose. If I was said contestant, I would probably pass out, have a heart attack or lose control of my functions.
We had a Valentine’s Day bake raffle at my school every year for all 8 years I attended. The odds of winning a cake were 50/50 since about 1/2 the kids would bring one. My mother made one every year… and I NEVER won.
50/50 for 8 years. Never won. I suck.
You have made me giggle!
Yes . . . failure to win a game of chance in which the odds are 50/50 for 8 years running means you suck.
Failure to win any game of chance means you suck, actually.
Which is why Las Vegas is FILLED with suckers.
Snort!
Me
I always felt the same way about Marilyn and her column.
Also: LALALALALALALA
Erin -
Snort!
Silly you.
Me